And the envelope please ...
I meant to take care of these predictions a few days ago, but I got bogged down with something really, really important (backed-up DVR?) and it slipped my mind -- until this afternoon, when I noticed Rick Porcello got jobbed just a little bit, in my humble opinion.
Yeah, yeah, I know Andrew Bailey had a phenomenal season in Oakland, with his 26 saves and 1.84 ERA. Sterling, indeed. Bravo. But Porcello, at 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA -- at age 20! -- deserved to be the second Tigers pitcher in four years to be named American League rookie of the year.
And for this very reason: The right-hander pitched two months in the thick of a pennant race, and performed like a veteran -- 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA in August, September and his lone start in October, a gritty 5.2-inning performance in the Tigers' do-or-die Game No. 163 at the Metrodome.
He also made more starts (31) than Chris Carpenter (28), had a better WHIP (1.336) than A.J. Burnett (1.401) and had fewer wins than just 22 of the 503 other pitchers who recorded a major league victory this season.
All that's gotta count for something, right? Nope. Not even enough for second place, where Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus sat. Sheesh. Fine, he's a great defensive player, I get that. But he hit .267 with no punch for cryin' out loud. White Sox infielder Gordon Beckham had eight more homers and 23 more RBIs in 42 fewer games and finished fifth, after winning both the Sporting News' and players association's version of the award.
As for the NL winner, that was fine: Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan hit .321 over 128 games. Impressive.
Here are the rest of my picks before I finish packing for a quick golf trip to Vegas ...
* AL Cy Young (today): Zack Greinke, RH, Royals
* NL Cy Young (Thursday): Chris Carpenter, RH, Cardinals
* AL manager of the year (Wednesday): Joe Girardi, Yankees
* NL manager of the year (Wednesday): Jim Tracy, Rockies
* AL most valuable player (Nov. 23): Joe Mayer, C, Twins
* NL most valuable player (Nov. 24): Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals
Be sure to check detnews.com on Friday for my complete hot-stove season preview and analysis
Ernie on MLB Network ...
This should be must-watch TV for Tigers fans: Legendary broadcaster and cancer-stricken Ernie Harwell gave Bob Costas a lengthy and candid interview recently, and the MLB Network (channel 279 Comcast, 213 DirecTV) will air the special at 8 p.m. Tuesday and then again at 10 p.m.
Among the revelations: Doctors in July told Harwell he had six months to live, "give or take," so he doesn't expect to be around for next baseball season. I still can't comprehend that scenario.
That said, the always optimistic Ernie then said, "but you never know as the Lord works wonders."
Boy, Ernie, we sure hope so.
Here are some excerpts the MLB Network released Thursday.
If you were Dombrowksi ...
... and had $20 milllion to spend this winter (I know, it's about $20M too unrealistic), what free agents would you target? The complete list of available players is two posts below this one, so browse and then report.
My choices: SS Orlando Cabrera (one year, $4 million), 2B Placido Polanco (two years, $16 million).
Social networking ...
In the hope of expanding the dialogue about Major League Baseball and the Detroit Tigers, today I launched two social networking ventures for which I welcome your participation.
* One is a Facebook fan page: TDN's Tony Paul: Covering the Bases.
* The other is Twitter: twitter.com/tonyjpaul.
Feel free to follow me and interact at both, as well as at this blog.
Oh, and my World Series preview will be out tomorrow. A sneak preview: I'm saying Yankees in six, which means Philly better start planning for another parade. Nobody picks 'em quite like me.
Taking a sneak peek at free agency ...
Not that free agency figures to be a big story around these parts this winter -- at last check, Dave Dombrowski was taking in his returnables just to scrounge up enough pocket change to get through arbitration -- but it's always fun to look at the names that might be available.
With the help of Rotoworld.com and my own personal research, here's a pretty solid list of who's for sale this offseason -- headlined, of course, by outfielder Matt Holliday, above. By no means do I claim this list to be perfect, but it's a decent road map for those who enjoy the hot-stove season as much as I do.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
SP Daniel Cabrera, free agent
1B Tony Clark, free agent
SP Doug Davis, free agent
RP Scott Schoeneweis, free agent
1B Chad Tracy, $7M club option ($1M buyout)
SP Brandon Webb, $8.5M club option ($1.5M buyout)
ATLANTA BRAVES
OF Garret Anderson, free agent
RP Mike Gonzalez, free agent
SP Tim Hudson, $12M mutual option ($1M buyout)
SP Chuck James, free agent
1B Adam LaRoche, free agent
1B Greg Norton, free agent
RP Rafael Soriano, free agent:
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
RP Danys Baez, free agent
RP Mark Hendrickson, free agent
3B Melvin Mora, $8M club option ($1M buyout)
OF Jay Payton, free agent
BOSTON RED SOX
OF Rocco Baldelli, free agent
OF Jason Bay, free agent
SS Alex Gonzalez, $6M mutual option ($500K buyout)
C Victor Martinez, $7M club option ($250K buyout)
RP Takashi Saito, $6M club option
C Jason Varitek, $5M club option or $3M player option
RP Billy Wagner, $8M club option ($1M buyout)
SP Tim Wakefield, $4M club option
CHICAGO CUBS
RP Chad Fox, free agent
RP John Grabow, free agent
RP Kevin Gregg, free agent
SP Rich Harden, free agent
OF Reed Johnson, free agent
OF So Taguchi, free agent
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
C Ramon Castro, free agent
RP Ocavio Dotel, free agent
OF Jermaine Dye, $10M mutual option ($1M buyout)
2B Jayson Nix, free agent
OF DeWayne Wise, free agent
CINCINNATI REDS
C Ramon Hernandez, $8.5M club option ($1M buyout)
RP Kip Wells, free agent
CLEVELAND INDIANS
2B Jamey Carroll, free agent
COLORADO ROCKIES
RP Rafael Betancourt, $5.4M club option
SP Jose Contreras, free agent
RP Alan Embree, $3M club option ($250K buyout)
1B Jason Giambi, $6.5M club option ($1.25M buyout)
SP Jason Marquis, free agent
C Yorvit Torrealba, $4M mutual option ($500K buyout)
DETROIT TIGERS
SS Adam Everett, free agent
DH Aubrey Huff, free agent
RP Brandon Lyon, free agent
2B Placido Polanco, free agent
RP Fernando Rodney, free agent
SP Jarrod Washburn, free agent
FLORIDA MARLINS
1B Ross Gload, $2.6M club option
1B Nick Johnson, free agent
HOUSTON ASTROS
3B Geoff Blum, free agent
1B Aaron Boone, free agent
RP Doug Brocail, $2.85M club option ($250K buyout)
OF Darin Erstad, free agent
SP Mike Hampton, free agent
RP LaTroy Hawkins, free agent
OF Jason Michaels, free agent
SS Miguel Tejada, free agent
RP Jose Valverde, free agent
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
OF Coco Crisp, $8M mutual option ($500K buyout)
RP Juan Cruz, free agent
C Miguel Olivo, free agent
RP Yasuhiko Yabuta, $4M player option ($500K buyout)
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
OF Bobby Abreu, free agent
SP Kelvim Escobar, free agent
3B Chone Figgins, free agent
DH Vladimir Guerrero, free agent
SP John Lackey, free agent
RP Darren Oliver, free agent
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
C Brad Ausmus, free agent
2B Ronnie Belliard, free agent
SS Juan Castro, free agent
SP Jon Garland, $10M mutual option ($2.5M club buyout/$1M player buyout)
2B Orlando Hudson, free agent
3B Mark Loretta, free agent
RP Guillermo Mota, free agent
RP Will Ohman, free agent
SP Vicente Padilla, $12M club option ($1.75M buyout)
SP Jason Schmidt, free agent
DH Jim Thome, free agent
SP Randy Wolf, free agent
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
OF Mike Cameron, free agent
OF Frank Catalanotto, $5M club option ($2M buyout)
2B Craig Counsell, free agent
OF Jody Gerut, free agent
C Jason Kendall, free agent
SP Braden Looper, $6M mutual option ($1M buyout)
2B Felipe Lopez, free agent
RP Seth McClung, free agent
SP Ben Sheets, free agent
RP Claudio Vargas, free agent
RP David Weathers, $3.7M club option
MINNESOTA TWINS
SS Orlando Cabrera, free agent
3B Joe Crede, free agent
RP Ron Mahay, free agent
SP Carl Pavano, free agent
C Mike Redmond, free agent
NEW YORK METS
SS Alex Cora, free agent
1B Carlos Delgado, free agent
RP J.J. Putz, $8.6M club option ($1M buyout)
SP Tim Redding, free agent
C Brian Schneider, free agent
OF Gary Sheffield, free agent
NEW YORK YANKEES
OF Johnny Damon, free agent
3B Jerry Hairston, free agent
OF Eric Hinske, free agent
DH Hideki Matsui, free agent
SP Sergio Mitre, $1.25M club option
C Jose Molina, free agent
OF Xaver Nady, free agent
SP Andy Pettitte, free agent
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
1B Bobby Crosby, free agent
SP Justin Duchscherer, free agent
DH Nomar Garciaparra, free agent
3B Adam Kennedy, free agent
RP Brett Tomko, free agent
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
C Paul Bako, free agent
2B Miguel Cairo, free agent
SP Cliff Lee, $8M club option ($1M buyout)
SP Pedro Martinez, free agent
SP Brett Myers, free agent
RP Chan Ho Park, free agent
OF Matt Stairs, free agent
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
None
SAN DIEGO PADRES
C Henry Blanco, free agent
OF Brian Giles, free agent
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
1B Rich Aurilia, free agent
RP Bobby Howry, free agent
SP Randy Johnson, free agent
SP Noah Lowry, $6.25M club option
C Bengie Molina, free agent
SP Brad Penny, free agent
2B Freddy Sanchez, $8M club option ($600K buyout)
3B Juan Uribe, free agent
OF Randy Winn, free agent
SEATTLE MARINERS
RP Miguel Batista, free agent
SP Erik Bedard, free agent
3B Adrian Beltre, free agent
1B Russell Branyan, free agent
OF Endy Chavez, free agent
OF Ken Griffey Jr., free agent
DH Mike Sweeney, free agent
SS Jack Wilson, $8.4M club option ($600K buyout)
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
OF Rick Ankiel, free agent
3B Mark DeRosa, free agent
RP Ryan Franklin, $2.75M club option ($250K buyout)
3B Troy Glaus, free agent
SS Khalil Greene, free agent
OF Matt Holliday, free agent
RP Trever Miller, free agent
SP Mark Mulder, free agent
SP Joel Pineiro, free agent
SP John Smoltz, $12-13M club option
SP Todd Wellemeyer, free agent
TAMPA BAY RAYS
RP Chad Bradford, free agent
OF Carl Crawford, $10M club option ($1.25M buyout)
RP Jason Isringhausen, free agent
2B Akinori Iwamura, $4.25M club option ($250K buyout)
OF Gabe Kapler, free agent
RP Troy Percival, free agent
RP Brian Shouse, $1.9M club option
RP Russ Springer, free agent
C Gregg Zaun, $2M club option ($500K buyout)
TEXAS RANGERS
RP Joaquin Benoit, free agent
1B Hank Blalock, free agent
OF Marlon Byrd, free agent
OF Andruw Jones, free agent
C Pudge Rodriguez, free agent
SS Omar Vizquel, free agent
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
C Rod Barajas, free agent
SS John McDonald, free agent
1B Kevin Millar, free agent
SS Marco Scutaro, free agent
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
C Josh Bard, $3M club option
OF Austin Kearns, $10M club option ($1M buyout)
RP Mike MacDougal, $3.75M club option ($350K buyout)
1B Dmitri Young, free agent
FYI, free agency doesn't begin until 15 days after the World Series ends. Teams have exclusive rights to negotiate with their own free agents during those two weeks. After that, then it's the oh-so-fun free-for-all.
Now a little housekeeping ... here are my American League and National League previews. I went a ridiculously successful 1-3 on my first-round predictions, and now I'm banking on that Dodgers-Yankees World Series.
Playoff preview ...
Sadly, the postseason is under way without the Tigers. Still, it promises to be a fun month of October (not to mention a chilly month of November) as the eight remaining teams battle it out for the right to play in what's nearly certain to be a crummy-weather World Series.
I'm most interested to see how the Twins fare against the Yankees. They're coming off an unbelievably tense three weeks as they scrapped and clawed their way to the American League Central championship, and they didn't get into New York City until after 3 this morning. The oddsmakers, for one, don't have much faith in the 87-76 Twins ... for today's game, you'd have to bet 360 chips on the Yankees just to win 100.
Anyway, there are a few ways to view the playoff preview:
* There's the best way: Buying the print copy of The News, which (just like the Freep) features tons of good baseball coverage today, including some very impressive and story-telling photographs.
* Of course, there's the always the Web version of the story.
* Or you can check out this PDF here, though I hope you have a good zoom on your computer:
For the record, I picked the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals and Rockies to advance to their respective league championship series ... and of course, Cliff Lee and the Phillies put me off to a predictably poor start.
But hey, the bar is low, right? After all, 1-6 picking 'em this year will be progress.
Miggy's mess-up ...
There's no word on whether the Tigers plan to discipline Miguel Cabrera for his late-night partying and subsequent domestic dispute and trip to the police station this weekend.
The greatest punishment of all, of course, would be the Tigers losing to the Twins on Tuesday and, thus, missing the playoffs -- completing one of the worst down-the-stretch collapses in major league history.
That's likely to happen, right there at the miserable Metrodome, and if so, Cabrera would be the Face of the Fizzle. Rightfully so. Sure, he's put up his typical .300 average and his 100 RBIs, but that's expected of him just as it is today's greats like A-Rod and Albert. He even hit a grand slam on Opening Day at Comerica Park, which was nice. But when it came to crunch time and the Tigers needed just a couple wins to secure their first division championship since 1987, Cabrera was nowhere to be found -- he batted an abysmal .192 during the biggest homestand of the year, the four-gamer against the Twins and three-gamer against the White Sox.
And now we come to find out on the eve of Game 2 of the White Sox series, Cabrera was out all night partying (with the opposing team, no less, reports say) rather than resting for a potential AL Central clincher.
Isn't that just a bit insulting to Tigers fans that their star first baseman -- their $153-million man -- was out drinking until possibly as late as 6 a.m. Saturday, following a series-opening loss in which he was 0-for-4?
And this wasn't just cocktail hour, by the way, this was a full night of boozing it up. According to the Birmingham Police Department, Cabrera blew a .26, more than three times the legal blood-alcohol driving limit. According to the Free Press, it was Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski who picked Cabrera up from the police station, but that didn't happen until 7 or 8 a.m. That, of course, suggests Cabrera hardly got much sleep before he had to be at the ballpark for Saturday night's game against the White Sox, a loss, coincidentally or not, in which he went 0-for-4 and grounded into a critical double play.
OK, Cabrera is just 26, and 26-year-olds make mental lapses all the time. If I told you all the stuff I did when I was 26, well ... not without my lawyer present, OK? But the entire state of Michigan wasn't counting on you or me at 26 as they are Cabrera and Co. And, frankly, it's not asking much -- especially in the thick of a pennant race, while also trying to stave off with one of the top 10 choke jobs in pro sports history -- to be in as good of shape possible every single game, especially for a Tiger who just last year happened to sign a contract that, by the time it expires in 2015, will pay him more money than any player in franchise story.
And let's be honest: Cabrera clearly wasn't in peak physical shape Saturday -- just look at all those bruises scattered across the left side of his face, especially that intriguing circular, purple one on his temple that looks like it was caused by a blow from a foreign object (like a cell phone, perhaps; more on that in a bit). That's just unacceptable. His physical condition (soreness, fatigue, etc.) absolutely could've affected his play Saturday, when he hit exactly zero balls out of the infield and grounded the first pitch he saw in the eighth inning into a rally-killing double play just as the Tigers looked like they might be breaking through against Freddy Garcia.
The incident, too, coupled perhaps with the heavy stress of knowing the pack of reporters crowded around his locker was about to find out exactly what went down early Saturday morning (a scrap with his wife apparently caused those face welts), definitely could've spilled over into Sunday's game, in which he posted his third consecutive 0-fer (0-for-3) in a must-win game the Tigers, lucky for his sake, happened to win.
Through all of this, Cabrera has remained silent, except for one puzzling explanation to Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi: "It was my dog." That, it turns out, was just a nervous falsehood for an unanticipated question. The truth, as spelled out by police in a news conference this morning, was that Cabrera's wife, Roseangel, didn't take kindly to his arriving home drunk and talking on a cell phone while she and his daughter slept.
Look, I'm not naive. I know a lot of baseball players -- pro athletes of all sports, actually -- have active nightlifes, but you'd hope they'd be smarter about the timing of their indulgences. Cabrera's, behaving this way as the city holds its collective breath with every runner on third and less than two outs, was poor as can be.
So, regardless of whether you believe his saga should've remained private or been plastered over the front page of this newspaper, there's no debating Cabrera, with some questionable decisions this weekend, let down his team but also his team's fans -- fans who, by the way, poured through the Comerica Park turnstiles to the tune of the fourth-best attendance in the AL and the fifth-best in Tigers history. Despite the economy.
All those fans, of course, could be an awfully forgiving bunch -- should Cabrera step up and provide a spark in Tuesday night's winner-take-all AL Central tiebreaker against the Twins.
If he doesn't and the Tigers' season ends, Dombrowski needn't hand down any punishment. Cabrera will feel all the wrath necessary next April 9, when an Opening Day crowd surely will not have forgotten this week.
Off to the Metro-doom ...
I've been trying all night to think of ways they can possibly sneak out of Minneapolis with a win Tuesday night, but the Tigers' history -- especially their recent history -- at the Metrodome is awfully tough to swallow.
Get this, folks: They're 30-61 this decade at the Twins' home park, 61-101 since the start of that tough-to-forget American League Championship Series in 1987 and 83-115 since the dome's doors opened in 1982.
Sure, there have been 83 different nights where the Tigers have put it all together at the Metrodome, but when they've needed to win the most -- that 1987 ALCS and two weeks ago -- they've fallen, and fallen hard.
That makes it darn near impossible to be any shade of confident come 5:07 Tuesday night.
Power Rankings ...
Because the Tigers failed in attempt No. 1 to secure the American League Central crown Thursday afternoon, the Yankees failed to make up their minds on when they want to get their first-round playoff series under way. For the justifiably confused, the choice actually is given to the American League team with the best record -- thanks to the All-Star Game victory, which, remember, was thanks to Curtis Granderson -- and the Yankees are pondering whether to start Wedndesday and get three days off (better for a top-heavy starting rotation) in the best-of-five series or kick things off Thursday and get only two days off (better for a deep starting rotation).
Their decision likely depends on whether they end up facing the Tigers or Twins in the division series.
Now, onto the abbreviated Power Rankings, where I really hope I have the eight playoff teams in the top eight.
1. Yankees (1); 2. Dodgers (2); 3. Angels (5); 4. Red Sox (3); 5. Phillies (4)
6. Rockies (7); 7. Cardinals (6); 8. Tigers (8); 9. Braves (9); 10. Giants (13)
11. Rangers (10); 12. Twins (12); 13. Marlins (11); 14. Rays (16); 15. Cubs (14)
16. Mariners (15); 17. Reds (18); 18. Brewers (17); 19. Blue Jays (24); 20. A's (19)
21. Padres (22); 22. White Sox (20); 23. Astros (21); 24. Royals (23); 25. Mets (25)
26. Diamondbacks (26); 27. Indians (27); 28. Pirates (29); Orioles (28); Nationals (30)
Is Joe Mauer a thief?
Was Joe Mauer stealing the Tigers' pitch-selection signs Tuesday? The Twins say absolutely not, but a 4-minute, 22-second amateur YouTube video makes a convincing argument that Mauer is guilty.
The clip, titled "Joe Mauer Stealing Signs (Not Cheating)," shows Mauer clearly fidgeting while standing on second base during Jason Kubel's at-bat in the sixth inning of Tuesday night's game at Comerica Park.
Twice in the at-bat, Mauer touches his right ear flap just before Justin Verlander delivers an off-speed pitch. Before Verlander's first fastball to Kubel, Mauer touches his face. In explanatory commentary, the YouTube user -- apparently some Twins apologist from Maple Grove, Minn., who goes by rolemodel2008 -- also makes the case the Tigers were on to Mauer, as catcher Gerald Laird calls time on multiple occasions to reset signs.
As for the Twins, some whom watched and chuckled over the clip in the clubhouse before Thursday's game, they were in full denial mode. Mauer even referred to his suspicious actions as "just a habit of mine."
Really? A habit? Conveniently immediately after the catcher puts down the fingers? You bet, the Twins insist.
"It's pretty funny. ... I've hit behind Joe for five years and I've never gotten a sign from him yet," injured first baseman Justin Morneau told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. "I'm still waiting."
Added Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, also to ESPN.com: "If you're stealing signs and you're using your hands on your helmet, I guarantee you, somebody would get killed. That's not the way you steal signs."
In other words, if you're going to do it, be less obvious.
As for Kubel's at-bat, it lasted seven pitches and resulted in a sacrifice fly to pull the Twins to within three runs. But the Tigers still went on to win, 6-5, to get their Central lead back to two games (where it remains today).
So, was he stealing? I say yes -- not that there's anything wrong with that, mind you, if done inconspicuously as demanded by the unwritten rules of baseball Gardenhire alluded to -- but you be the judge, Tiger Talkers.
