"Amelia" and the perils of prognostication
And now a word about the curious case of "Amelia."
"Amelia" stars Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart, the groundbreaking female pilot who won America's heart before she disappeared into the skies forever in 1937. The film belongs to Fox Searchlight, the studio which has been the most steady of the boutique indie players in the Oscar races over the past three years with "Little Miss Sunshine," "Juno" and last year's winner, "Slumdog Millionaire."
Swank, of course, is the most unheralded dual Best Actress Oscar winner in history. The former next Karate Kid struck gold with both "Boys Don't Cry" in 2000 and "Million Dollar Baby" in 2005, although prior and subsequent to each of those films she accomplished little that's been either noteworthy or commercially successful (OK, she was on "Beverly Hills 90210").
All year long the mere fact that Swank is in "Amelia" and that Fox Searchlight has the film have put her on everybody's short list for a likely best actress nominee.
There's only one problem with that: No one has seen "Amelia."
It comes out next Friday and it's only being screened for critics Tuesday night.
Understand, "Sunshine," "Juno" and "Slumdog" were all shown -- for different reasons -- months before they hit theaters. And "Amelia" was most likely ready enough for the Toronto International Film Festival in September, the previous launching pad for "Slumdog" and "Juno."
All of which means nothing. "Amelia" is directed by the gifted Indian Mira Nair, whose last film was the nicely carved "The Namesake" and whose previous catalog -- "Monsoon Wedding," "Mississippi Masala," "Kama Sutra -- is strong and inventive, if uneven ("Vanity Fair").
Still -- Nair has never been nominated for an Oscar, Swank is a fine actress who's difficult to cast in the right role and this picture is being held close until the last moment.
Let's hope all of that adds up to nothing and the movie's a knockout. We'll find out next week.
But if it isn't it will say something about prognosticators' tendency to jump on the obvious with little or no actual information.
The next film that will bring up that same question? That would be "Nine," which many have all but conceded mutltiple nominations to.
We'll see...
